Present common AGI estimate
Now we have invited many notable individuals and corporations in AI to present us estimates for after they assume AGI (synthetic common intelligence) will probably be achieved. We then common the estimates to supply this countdown. When date ranges are given as estimates we use the decrease finish for our countdown – so the common estimate is a little more aggressive than the precise estimates may counsel.
Definitions of AGI will range however we’ll depart this countdown open to every contributor’s personal interpretation of the exact which means.
The present estimate primarily based on 3 contributions is 2025-10-01.
Utilizing https://onlinetimetools.com/calculate-average-calendar-date
That is by all means not a rigorous scientific strategy to the subject of AGI and a proper strategy to estimating its “arrival”” date. Additionally, after all, the subject of AGI itself shouldn’t be effectively outlined – if it may be exactly outlined in any respect. That is, nevertheless, an attention-grabbing matter normally and due to this fact we thought-about it worthwhile exploring.
Contributors
Right here’s the record of present contributors (we now have many extra invites pending by way of Twitter DMs) to the estimate, together with some ideas concerning the estimate, when offered:
Jacob Valdez – 2023-12-31
Elon Musk? (invitation for an estimate has been despatched)
Robert Scoble? (invitation for an estimate has been despatched)
Geoffrey Hinton – 2028-04-01 (5 to twenty, down from 20 to 50, years as of March 2023, supply)
Steve Digital – 2025-01-01
”2022, particularly, and the prior years have proven super progress in AI. 2023 will simply trump that in my view and with additional leaps in emergent behaviours and talents I anticipate AGI to be with us no later than the start of 2025. This can be a very optimistic timeline. I’m additionally weary of what that may imply for humankind however I’ve hopes that we are going to use AGI to dramatically enhance everybody’s lives worldwide.”
Different contributions
After inviting many individuals we did additionally get suggestions that mainly acknowledged that this text is ridiculous or no less than not well-defined sufficient to warrant an try at estimating a date or date vary. They’re completely legit and mainly appropriate, however that didn’t cease us from exploring the subject. Listed here are some examples.